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Using statistical models to predict match outcomes can take a back seat once you understand the different aspects of matched betting for football and how best to perfect them.
There is much development of algorithms and data crunching going on in an attempt to outsmart the odds compilers. This is a huge challenge for the individual as bookmakers are already employing similar techniques and have the resources to remain one step ahead.
Ironically, online bookmakers give us the means to make a sure profit from betting on football and it doesn’t matter which team wins, how many goals are scored or what the correct score is. The key to winning at any form of gambling is having an edge and betting offers throw this advantage firmly into the lap of punters who are willing to use matched betting techniques to guarantee a profit.
Matched betting involves placing a bet with a bookmaker and laying against the same outcome on a betting exchange thus guaranteeing a return whatever the result. It is generally regarded as a two stage process of qualifying for a free bet at minimal cost and extracting around 80% of the free bet value in cash. This retention value is higher, typically 95%, for bonuses which return the stake as well as winnings. However, with bookmakers giving price boosts and enhanced odds, where the extra winnings are made up in free bets, there are other methods which allow us to exploit these promotions for profit.
The matched betting odds matcher is probably the most important tool you’ll use in this endeavor. Taking odds feeds from online betting sites and having the ability to filter by bookmaker, exchange, event and market is a great time saver. This can’t be underestimated as matched betting profits are limited by the amount of the free bet or bonus, therefore you’ll want to quickly hoover up these offers with the least effort. It’s because of this tool and the integrated calculator which works out ideal lay stakes that matched bettors can claim to make over £1000 per month.
You can bet on any sport to exploit sign up offers but the ongoing profit potential comes from promotions aimed at existing customers. Due to football’s popularity with casual gamblers, bookmakers promote lots of offers encouraging punters to bet on football which are available every week of the season.
Money back offers will give a free bet refund on losing bets in a given scenario, such as if the game ends in a draw. This example provides the opportunity to back the draw at ridiculously high odds, albeit it for small stakes. Let’s imagine there is a maximum £50 refund available. Find a match on an eligible market, that doesn’t involve a draw outcome, for a qualifying loss of £5. If the game is drawn you get a free bet, if not or your selection wins, you’ll lose the qualifying cost. Given you can expect to retain £40 from a £50 free bet you’ll have effectively made a wager of 7/1 for the draw, statistically around 5/2 for most leagues.
Price boost promotions can be exploited when they provide an arbitrage opportunity. Stakes are limited and bookmakers allow you to take advantage with impunity, which can’t be said about ‘arbing’ when their normal prices are out of line with the rest of the market. Enhanced odds offers can pay as much as double and treble the normal odds. Extra winnings tend to be paid in free bets so the enhanced odds require adjustment to account for their real value.
Various strategies are used to exploit bookmaker promotions, which may be deployed to guarantee a profit from an offer, gain a risk free bet or to manipulate a big edge over statistical chances. Subscription services provide all the tools and instructions required to perfect techniques and are a good place to start matched betting.