TV mathematician picks out an unusual winner for this summer’s World Cup
TV number-whizz and all round football fanatic, Rachel Riley has become the latest person to join the Ladbrokes squad this summer. The Countdown number cruncher, with a degree from Oxbridge, was challenged by Ladbrokes to use statistics to shed a light on who might win the World Cup in Brazil
With so many variables and influences to consider including goal averages, goal scorers, win rates, climate, geography and all the pre-tournament hype and expectation, any prediction method requires a combination of both mathematical logic and human reasoning.
Going into the tournament as favourites seems also to be a bit of a jinx when it comes to actually winning the World Cup so this takes Brazil out of the running. Combine that with the fact that no team from North & Central America, and Asia & Oceania have ever won the World Cup takes another chunk of teams out of contention. Team that with the stat that no team from Europe has ever won the prestigious tournament outside of Europe and the amount of potential winners becomes very slim.
Manchester United fan Rachel says of her calculations: “Having crunched all the numbers and stats my maths suggests Chile are a good bet to upset the odds at 40/1. They might be amongst the outsiders, but the statistics and form imply they will be this year’s dark horse. They’ve got a decent team, and as they’ve come through from a tough group they tick all the boxes and I’m convinced Chile can go all the way.
“Everyone thinks the winner will come from one of the top 10 teams, but the key stats on qualifying performance, goals scored, goal-scorers, host nation and current outright odds suggest the likes of pre-tournament favourites Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Italy and France will be going home empty handed.”
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